Ferroviario 2–2 Aparecidense: Result & Stats

Ferroviario

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Aparecidense

Léo Rafael 73'

Alisson 27'

Dudu Rodrigues 39'

Genilson 31'

4/29/2024

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ferroviario41%

×Draw29%

Aparecidense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchAparecidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.96

Ferroviario

1.20

Aparecidense

0.96

Ferroviario creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

0.98

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ferroviario

1.18

Aparecidense

0.94

allows per match

Ferroviario

0.98

Aparecidense

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario ↓

Aparecidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ferroviario or draw

71%

Ferroviario or Aparecidense

71%

Draw or Aparecidense

59%

Winning margin

Ferroviario wins by 2+

18%

Aparecidense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ferroviario 1+ goals

70%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

34%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

12%

Aparecidense 1+ goals

62%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

25%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

59%

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario attack 1.18 + Aparecidense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Aparecidense attack 0.94 + Ferroviario defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ferroviario scores more

41%

level

29%

Aparecidense scores more

29%

Ferroviario at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

27'

31'

39'

46'

Da Silva← Maurício Barbosa

46'

Rhuan Silveira← Cauari

52'

Gabryel Martins

58'

Genilson

59'

Mattheus Silva← Ernandes

59'

Ralph← Felipinho

59'

Vitinho← Gabryel Martins

61'

63'

68'

72'

73'

76'

79'

81'

Matheus Chaves← Du Fernandes

90'

Emanuel

90'

Ciel

Ferroviario

Aparecidense

Henrique

▼

Barbosa

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Maurício Copertino

59'▲Mattheus Silva←▼Ernandes

59'▲Ralph←▼Felipinho

59'▲Vitinho←▼Gabryel Martins

61'▲Igor Dutra←▼Wesley

72'▲Léo Rafael←▼Marciel

Ferroviario substitutes

SilvaRalphVitinhoDutraRafaelGeazeGeilsonGeninhoAlvesWendsonWilker

Manager: Lúcio Flávio

46'▲Da Silva←▼Maurício Barbosa

46'▲Rhuan Silveira←▼Cauari

63'▲Luan Sales←▼Genilson

76'▲Alan James←▼Ezequiel

81'▲Matheus Chaves←▼Du Fernandes

Aparecidense substitutes

SilvaSilveiraSalesJamesChavesAlvesDanielDyegoInácioOliveiraVitinho

Serie C: Ferroviario 2–2 Aparecidense

Ferroviario and Aparecidense drew 2-2 in Serie C on April 29, 2024.

Goals: Alisson (27'), Genilson (31'), Dudu Rodrigues (39'), Léo Rafael (73').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas in Fortaleza, Ceará.

Ferroviario vs Aparecidense — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Ferroviario 2–2 Aparecidense