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Ferroviario vs Aparecidense — Serie C 2018

Ferroviario
Ferroviario
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aparecidense
Aparecidense
7/9/2022Serie CSerie C · Round 14Estádio Vila Olímpica Elzir Cabral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ferroviario41%
×Draw29%
Aparecidense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviario
1.20
Aparecidense
0.96

Ferroviario creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ferroviario
1.18
Aparecidense
0.94

allows per match

Ferroviario
0.98
Aparecidense
1.22

finishing

Ferroviario+0.00on par
Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario ↓

Aparecidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ferroviario or draw
71%
Ferroviario or Aparecidense
71%
Draw or Aparecidense
59%

Winning margin

Ferroviario wins by 2+
18%
Aparecidense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ferroviario 1+ goals
70%
Ferroviario 2+ goals
34%
Ferroviario 3+ goals
12%
Aparecidense 1+ goals
62%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
25%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario (draw refunded)
59%
Aparecidense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario attack 1.18 + Aparecidense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Aparecidense attack 0.94 + Ferroviario defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ferroviario scores more
41%
level
29%
Aparecidense scores more
29%

Ferroviario at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferroviario vs Aparecidense

Ferroviario beat Aparecidense 1-0 in Serie C on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Vila Olímpica Elzir Cabral in Fortaleza, Ceará.