Ferroviario 1–3 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Ferroviario

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

ABC

Eduardo 54'

Kelvin 39', 19'

Jefinho 7'

4/16/2022

Serie C · Round 2Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ferroviario42%

×Draw30%

ABC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.88

Ferroviario

1.17

ABC

0.88

Ferroviario creates 33% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 53 away

1.18

creates per match

0.77

0.98

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ferroviario

1.18

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Ferroviario

0.98

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviario+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferroviario or draw

72%

Ferroviario or ABC

70%

Draw or ABC

58%

Winning margin

Ferroviario wins by 2+

18%

ABC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ferroviario 1+ goals

69%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

33%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

11%

ABC 1+ goals

59%

ABC 2+ goals

22%

ABC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

61%

ABC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario attack 1.18 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

ABC attack 0.77 + Ferroviario defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ferroviario scores more

42%

level

30%

ABC scores more

28%

Ferroviario at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

19'

34'

39'

50'

54'

62'

Matheus Rocha← Fábio Lima

63'

Filipinho

69'

Clisman← Eduardo

69'

Marquinho Carioca← Yuri Ferraz

69'

Wagninho← Emerson

73'

Maicon Assis

73'

Edson Carius

75'

Valderrama← Maicon Assis

79'

Kelvin

79'

Wagninho

81'

Mauri← Maicon Souza

81'

Raphael← Kelvin

90'

Willian← Erick Varão

Ferroviario

ABC

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Eduardo

Manager: Roberto Fonseca

69'▲Clisman←▼Eduardo

69'▲Marquinho Carioca←▼Yuri Ferraz

69'▲Wagninho←▼Emerson

75'▲Valderrama←▼Maicon Assis

81'▲Mauri←▼Maicon Souza

Ferroviario substitutes

ClismanCariocaWagninhoValderramaMauriJeanBaumerArthurBrenoDineyAlemão

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

62'▲Matheus Rocha←▼Fábio Lima

81'▲Raphael←▼Kelvin

90'▲Willian←▼Erick Varão

ABC substitutes

RochaRaphaelWillianNogueiraPorozoChinaMarquinhos

Match Recap: Ferroviario vs ABC

ABC beat Ferroviario 3-1 in Serie C on April 16, 2022.

Goals: Jefinho (7'), Kelvin (19', 39'), Eduardo (54').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal João Ronaldo in Pacajus, Ceará.

Ferroviario vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ferroviario vs ABC