ABC 4–1 Ferroviario: Result & Stats

ABC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ferroviario

Jhosefer 90'

Wallyson 82', 64', 10' (pen)

Thalisson 57'

4/30/2026

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ABC57%

×Draw22%

Ferroviario21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.14

ABC

2.00

Ferroviario

1.14

ABC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.84

creates per match

1.31

0.96

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

ABC

1.84

Ferroviario

1.31

allows per match

ABC

0.96

Ferroviario

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

ABC or draw

79%

ABC or Ferroviario

78%

Draw or Ferroviario

43%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

34%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

86%

ABC 2+ goals

59%

ABC 3+ goals

32%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

68%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

32%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

73%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.84 + Ferroviario defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ferroviario attack 1.31 + ABC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

ABC scores more

57%

level

22%

Ferroviario scores more

21%

ABC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Victor Brasil

10'

WallysonPenalty

28'

Geilson

29'

Jonathan

46'

Jhosefer← Luiz Fernando

46'

46'

46'

57'

58'

61'

Wellington Reis← Jonathan

61'

Brunao← Bruno Leite

61'

Rikelmi← Joao Pedro

64'

Wallyson

66'

Fernando Portel← Iago Reis

70'

Paulo Ricardo← Pablinho

73'

Randerson←

78'

82'

83'

90+3'

90'

ABC

Ferroviario

1

Brasil

2

Geo

4

▼

Reis

5

▼

Luan

6

▼

Pedrinho

11

▼

Pablinho

16

▼

20

22

25

99

1

2

3

5

6

8

10

▼

Pedro

11

⚽3

Wallyson

15

▼

Jonathan

18

▼

Fernando

99

▼

Leite

46'▲Jhosefer←▼Luiz Fernando

61'▲Wellington Reis←▼Jonathan

61'▲Brunao←▼Bruno Leite

61'▲Rikelmi←▼Joao Pedro

73'▲Randerson←▼—

ABC substitutes

12Castro7Jhosefer13Victor14Reis16Vinicius17Brunao19Esquerdinha20Oliveira22Randerson23Tenorio27Rikelmi

Manager: Nuno Pereira

46'▲Carlinhos←▼Y. Mena

46'▲Thalisson←▼Pedrinho

46'▲Pablo Maldini←▼Luan

66'▲Fernando Portel←▼Iago Reis

70'▲Paulo Ricardo←▼Pablinho

Ferroviario substitutes

93Junior33Daniel7Carlinhos9Camilo10Thalisson13Maldini14Miranda15Portel19Luciano21Ricardo