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Ferroviário do Huambo vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
FT
0 – 1
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
11/2/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio Provincial da Huíla (Ferroviário) (Lubango)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo24%
×Draw30%
Desportivo Huíla46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.79
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

Desportivo Huíla creates 53% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 100 away

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
0.38
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo
1.65
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw
54%
Ferroviário do Huambo or Desportivo Huíla
70%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
76%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
7%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
55%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
19%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
5%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
70%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
34%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
34%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.79

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
24%
level
30%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
46%

Desportivo Huíla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferroviário do Huambo vs Desportivo Huíla

Desportivo Huíla beat Ferroviário do Huambo 1-0 in Girabola on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Provincial da Huíla (Ferroviário) (Lubango).