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Desportivo Huíla vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
3 – 2
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
5/1/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio Provincial da Huíla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Desportivo Huíla64%
×Draw24%
Ferroviário do Huambo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.60
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.53

Desportivo Huíla creates 202% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 27 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
88%
Desportivo Huíla or Ferroviário do Huambo
76%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
36%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
35%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
80%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
47%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
22%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
41%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
10%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
84%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
64%
level
24%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
12%

Desportivo Huíla at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Huíla vs Ferroviário do Huambo

Desportivo Huíla beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-2 in Girabola on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Provincial da Huíla in Lubango.