Ferroviário do Huambo 1–0 Baixa de Kassange

Ferroviário do Huambo

FT

1 – 0

Baixa de Kassange

5/23/2021

Girabola · Round 21Estádio dos Kuricutelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo37%

×Draw28%

Baixa de Kassange35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviário do HuamboExpected goals in this matchBaixa de Kassange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.16

Ferroviário do Huambo

1.19

Baixa de Kassange

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

0.38

creates per match

0.67

1.65

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.38

Baixa de Kassange

0.67

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

1.65

Baixa de Kassange

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

Baixa de Kassange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw

65%

Ferroviário do Huambo or Baixa de Kassange

72%

Draw or Baixa de Kassange

63%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+

16%

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals

70%

Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals

33%

Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals

12%

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals

69%

Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals

32%

Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)

51%

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Baixa de Kassange away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + Baixa de Kassange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Baixa de Kassange attack 0.67 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more

37%

level

28%

Baixa de Kassange scores more

35%

Ferroviário do Huambo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ferroviário do Huambo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff