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Baixa de Kassange vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
FT
3 – 0
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
1/23/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange56%
×Draw27%
Ferroviário do Huambo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baixa de Kassange
1.44
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.67

Baixa de Kassange creates 115% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange
1.00
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange
0.93
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw
83%
Baixa de Kassange or Ferroviário do Huambo
73%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
44%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
28%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
76%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
42%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
18%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
49%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
15%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
76%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more
56%
level
27%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
17%

Baixa de Kassange at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baixa de Kassange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baixa de Kassange vs Ferroviário do Huambo

Baixa de Kassange beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-0 in Girabola on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio 1º de Maio in Malanje.