Ferroviário do Huambo 1–1 1º de Agosto

Ferroviário do Huambo

FT

1 – 1

1º de Agosto

2/8/2020

Girabola · Round 19Estádio dos Kuricutelas (Huambo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ferroviário do Huambo13%

×Draw26%

1º de Agosto61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviário do HuamboExpected goals in this match1º de Agosto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.53

1.48

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.53

1º de Agosto

1.48

1º de Agosto creates 179% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 108 away

0.38

creates per match

1.30

1.65

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.38

1º de Agosto

1.30

allows per match

Ferroviário do Huambo

1.65

1º de Agosto

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviário do Huambo ↓

1º de Agosto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–120%

0–215%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviário do Huambo or draw

39%

Ferroviário do Huambo or 1º de Agosto

74%

Draw or 1º de Agosto

87%

Winning margin

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+

3%

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals

41%

Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals

10%

Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals

2%

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

77%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

43%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)

18%

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviário do Huambo at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

1º de Agosto away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.67 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.38 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.53

1º de Agosto attack 1.30 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more

13%

level

26%

1º de Agosto scores more

61%

1º de Agosto at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff