1º de Agosto 4–1 Ferroviário do Huambo

1º de Agosto

FT

4 – 1

Ferroviário do Huambo

7/31/2021

Girabola · Round 30Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

1º de Agosto69%

×Draw21%

Ferroviário do Huambo10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de AgostoExpected goals in this matchFerroviário do Huambo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.53

1º de Agosto

1.85

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.53

1º de Agosto creates 249% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 27 away

1.81

creates per match

0.41

0.64

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

1º de Agosto

1.81

Ferroviário do Huambo

0.41

allows per match

1º de Agosto

0.64

Ferroviário do Huambo

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Agosto+0.00on par

Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Agosto ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

1º de Agosto or draw

90%

1º de Agosto or Ferroviário do Huambo

79%

Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo

31%

Winning margin

1º de Agosto wins by 2+

42%

Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

1º de Agosto 1+ goals

84%

1º de Agosto 2+ goals

55%

1º de Agosto 3+ goals

28%

Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals

41%

Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals

10%

Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

1º de Agosto (draw refunded)

88%

Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Agosto at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.64 · 107 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Agosto attack 1.81 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + 1º de Agosto defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

1º de Agosto scores more

69%

level

21%

Ferroviário do Huambo scores more

10%

1º de Agosto at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "1º de Agosto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff