Ferroviária 2–0 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Ferroviária

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Gustavo Medina 60'

Thiago Lopes 45'

4/18/2025

Serie B · Round 3Arena Fonte Luminosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ferroviária36%

×Draw29%

Atletico Goianiense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviáriaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.12

Ferroviária

1.15

Atletico Goianiense

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 71 away

1.05

creates per match

1.03

1.21

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ferroviária

1.05

Atletico Goianiense

1.03

allows per match

Ferroviária

1.21

Atletico Goianiense

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw

65%

Ferroviária or Atletico Goianiense

71%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

64%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals

68%

Ferroviária 2+ goals

32%

Ferroviária 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

31%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)

51%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.05 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.03 + Ferroviária defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ferroviária scores more

36%

level

29%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

35%

Ferroviária at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Gustavo Medina

Ferroviária · D

8.0

Match Events

32'

Guilherme Romão

32'

Vladimir

45'

Thiago Lopes

46'

Kauan Rodrigues← Willian Maranhao

46'

Robert Conceicao← Willian Pottker

60'

Gustavo Medina↳ Netinho

62'

Ian Luccas← Thiago Lopes

62'

Tarik← Netinho

64'

Leo Naldi← Ariel

64'

F. Martinez← Marcelinho

72'

Cassio Gabriel← Juninho

72'

Wesley Pomba← Albano

79'

Rai Natalino← Ruan Teixeira

81'

Tarik Boschetti

84'

Kevin← Lucas Rodrigues

89'

Maycon

90+2'

Wesley Pomba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerroviáriaAtletico

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots10

0.78Expected Goals (xG)0.42

6Corners6

14Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target2

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

383Total Passes386

313Accurate Passes316

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3