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Atletico Goianiense vs Ferroviária — Serie B 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ferroviária
Ferroviária
8/17/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 22Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletico Goianiense49%
×Draw25%
Ferroviária26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.56
Ferroviária
1.05

Atletico Goianiense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.59
Ferroviária
1.21

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
0.89
Ferroviária
1.53

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par
Ferroviária+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Ferroviária →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
74%
Atletico Goianiense or Ferroviária
75%
Draw or Ferroviária
51%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
25%
Ferroviária wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
46%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
21%
Ferroviária 1+ goals
65%
Ferroviária 2+ goals
28%
Ferroviária 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
66%
Ferroviária (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

Ferroviária away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.59 + Ferroviária defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ferroviária attack 1.21 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
49%
level
25%
Ferroviária scores more
26%

Atletico Goianiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Ferroviária

Ferroviária beat Atletico Goianiense 3-1 in Serie B on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Serra Dourada in Goiânia, Goiás.