Ferro Carril Oeste 2–2 CA Estudiantes

Ferro Carril Oeste

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

CA Estudiantes

6/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste43%

×Draw31%

CA Estudiantes26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril OesteExpected goals in this matchCA Estudiantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.81

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.13

CA Estudiantes

0.81

Ferro Carril Oeste creates 40% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 118 away

1.25

creates per match

0.81

0.80

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.25

CA Estudiantes

0.81

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste

0.80

CA Estudiantes

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste ↓

CA Estudiantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw

74%

Ferro Carril Oeste or CA Estudiantes

69%

Draw or CA Estudiantes

57%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+

18%

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals

68%

Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals

31%

Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals

11%

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

56%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

19%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)

62%

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.01 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.25 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

CA Estudiantes attack 0.81 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more

43%

level

31%

CA Estudiantes scores more

26%

Ferro Carril Oeste at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff