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CA Estudiantes vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026

CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
7/9/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group B - 21Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CA Estudiantes44%
×Draw29%
Ferro Carril Oeste27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Estudiantes
1.24
Ferro Carril Oeste
0.90

CA Estudiantes creates 38% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 132 away

creates per match

CA Estudiantes
1.25
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.08

allows per match

CA Estudiantes
0.72
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.23

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw
73%
CA Estudiantes or Ferro Carril Oeste
71%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste
56%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
20%
Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
71%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
35%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
13%
Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
59%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
23%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
62%
Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.72 · 120 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.08 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more
44%
level
29%
Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
27%

CA Estudiantes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Estudiantes vs Ferro Carril Oeste

Ferro Carril Oeste beat CA Estudiantes 2-1 in Primera Nacional on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros in Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires.