Ferro Carril Oeste 1–1 Arsenal Sarandi

Ferro Carril Oeste

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal Sarandi

2/25/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 4Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste50%

×Draw29%

Arsenal Sarandi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril OesteExpected goals in this matchArsenal Sarandi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.76

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.32

Arsenal Sarandi

0.76

Ferro Carril Oeste creates 74% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 49 away

1.25

creates per match

0.71

0.80

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.25

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste

0.80

Arsenal Sarandi

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw

78%

Ferro Carril Oeste or Arsenal Sarandi

71%

Draw or Arsenal Sarandi

50%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+

24%

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals

73%

Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals

38%

Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals

15%

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

53%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

18%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)

70%

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.25 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.71 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more

50%

level

29%

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

22%

Ferro Carril Oeste at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff