Arsenal Sarandi 2–0 Ferro Carril Oeste

Arsenal Sarandi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ferro Carril Oeste

8/10/2025

Primera Nacional · Round 26Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi44%

×Draw29%

Ferro Carril Oeste27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal SarandiExpected goals in this matchFerro Carril Oeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.90

Arsenal Sarandi

1.25

Ferro Carril Oeste

0.90

Arsenal Sarandi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 132 away

1.27

creates per match

1.08

0.71

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi

1.27

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.08

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw

73%

Arsenal Sarandi or Ferro Carril Oeste

71%

Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste

56%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

20%

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

71%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

36%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

13%

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals

59%

Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals

23%

Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

62%

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.27 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.08 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

44%

level

29%

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more

27%

Arsenal Sarandi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff