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Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
11/5/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste46%
×Draw29%
Almirante Brown24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste
1.25
Almirante Brown
0.82

Ferro Carril Oeste creates 52% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste
1.25
Almirante Brown
0.85

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste
0.80
Almirante Brown
1.26

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par
Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste ↓

Almirante Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw
76%
Ferro Carril Oeste or Almirante Brown
71%
Draw or Almirante Brown
54%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
21%
Almirante Brown wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
71%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
36%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
13%
Almirante Brown 1+ goals
56%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
20%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
66%
Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.25 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
46%
level
29%
Almirante Brown scores more
24%

Ferro Carril Oeste at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown

Ferro Carril Oeste and Almirante Brown drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.