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Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026

Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
11/11/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Almirante Brown39%
×Draw30%
Ferro Carril Oeste30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almirante Brown
1.10
Ferro Carril Oeste
0.92

Almirante Brown creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 132 away

creates per match

Almirante Brown
0.97
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.08

allows per match

Almirante Brown
0.75
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.23

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw
70%
Almirante Brown or Ferro Carril Oeste
70%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste
61%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+
16%
Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals
67%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
30%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
10%
Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
60%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
23%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
57%
Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.08 + Almirante Brown defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almirante Brown scores more
39%
level
30%
Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
30%

Almirante Brown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Almirante Brown 0–0 Ferro Carril Oeste

Almirante Brown and Ferro Carril Oeste drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.