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CSKA 1948 vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
2 – 1
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
2/26/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Stadion Vasil Levski (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

CSKA 194862%
×Draw23%
Kariana Erden16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.80
Kariana Erden
0.78

CSKA 1948 creates 131% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
2.19
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

CSKA 1948
0.46
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
84%
CSKA 1948 or Kariana Erden
77%
Draw or Kariana Erden
38%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
36%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
83%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
54%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
27%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
54%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
18%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
80%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.46 · 26 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 2.19 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + CSKA 1948 defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
62%
level
23%
Kariana Erden scores more
16%

CSKA 1948 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 2–1 Kariana Erden

CSKA 1948 beat Kariana Erden 2-1 in Second League on February 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski (Sofia).