CSKA 1948 1–1 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

1 – 1

Kariana Erden

7/11/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportna Baza Boyana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CSKA 194855%

×Draw25%

Kariana Erden20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.86

CSKA 1948

1.60

Kariana Erden

0.86

CSKA 1948 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

1.95

creates per match

0.50

1.23

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.95

Kariana Erden

0.50

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.23

Kariana Erden

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

80%

CSKA 1948 or Kariana Erden

75%

Draw or Kariana Erden

45%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

29%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

80%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

47%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

22%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

58%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

21%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

73%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.95 + Kariana Erden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kariana Erden attack 0.50 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

55%

level

25%

Kariana Erden scores more

20%

CSKA 1948 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff