Fernwald 2–0 Dietkirchen: Result & Stats

Fernwald

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dietkirchen

8/11/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 3Sportplatz Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Fernwald63%

×Draw18%

Dietkirchen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FernwaldExpected goals in this matchDietkirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.32

Fernwald

2.50

Dietkirchen

1.32

Fernwald creates 89% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 57 away

2.12

creates per match

1.14

1.50

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Fernwald

2.12

Dietkirchen

1.14

allows per match

Fernwald

1.50

Dietkirchen

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernwald+0.00on par

Dietkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernwald ↓

Dietkirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Fernwald or draw

81%

Fernwald or Dietkirchen

82%

Draw or Dietkirchen

37%

Winning margin

Fernwald wins by 2+

41%

Dietkirchen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fernwald 1+ goals

92%

Fernwald 2+ goals

71%

Fernwald 3+ goals

45%

Dietkirchen 1+ goals

73%

Dietkirchen 2+ goals

38%

Dietkirchen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fernwald (draw refunded)

77%

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernwald at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Dietkirchen away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernwald attack 2.12 + Dietkirchen defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.50

Dietkirchen attack 1.14 + Fernwald defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fernwald scores more

63%

level

18%

Dietkirchen scores more

19%

Fernwald at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff