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Dietkirchen vs Fernwald — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Dietkirchen
Dietkirchen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Fernwald
Fernwald
11/25/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 19Sportplatz Dietkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dietkirchen36%
×Draw22%
Fernwald42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dietkirchen
1.69
Fernwald
1.86

Fernwald creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dietkirchen
1.81
Fernwald
1.86

allows per match

Dietkirchen
1.86
Fernwald
1.56

finishing

Dietkirchen+0.00on par
Fernwald+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dietkirchen ↓

Fernwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dietkirchen or draw
58%
Dietkirchen or Fernwald
78%
Draw or Fernwald
64%

Winning margin

Dietkirchen wins by 2+
18%
Fernwald wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dietkirchen 1+ goals
82%
Dietkirchen 2+ goals
50%
Dietkirchen 3+ goals
24%
Fernwald 1+ goals
84%
Fernwald 2+ goals
55%
Fernwald 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)
46%
Fernwald (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dietkirchen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

Fernwald away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dietkirchen attack 1.81 + Fernwald defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fernwald attack 1.86 + Dietkirchen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dietkirchen scores more
36%
level
22%
Fernwald scores more
42%

Fernwald at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Dietkirchen 1–3 Fernwald

Fernwald beat Dietkirchen 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dietkirchen in Limburg an der Lahn.