Fernando De La Mora 1–2 24 de Setiembre

Fernando De La Mora

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

24 de Setiembre

4/27/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 5Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fernando De La Mora51%

×Draw25%

24 de Setiembre24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernando De La MoraExpected goals in this match24 de Setiembre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Fernando De La Mora

1.56

24 de Setiembre

0.99

Fernando De La Mora creates 58% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

0.99

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora

1.31

24 de Setiembre

1.00

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora

0.99

24 de Setiembre

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

24 de Setiembre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw

76%

Fernando De La Mora or 24 de Setiembre

75%

Draw or 24 de Setiembre

49%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

26%

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

79%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

46%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

21%

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals

63%

24 de Setiembre 2+ goals

26%

24 de Setiembre 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

68%

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more

51%

level

25%

24 de Setiembre scores more

24%

Fernando De La Mora at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff