24 de Setiembre 4–2 Fernando De La Mora

24 de Setiembre

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Fernando De La Mora

8/7/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre37%

×Draw25%

Fernando De La Mora38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

24 de SetiembreExpected goals in this matchFernando De La Mora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.42

24 de Setiembre

1.40

Fernando De La Mora

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

1.53

creates per match

1.16

1.67

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

24 de Setiembre

1.53

Fernando De La Mora

1.16

allows per match

24 de Setiembre

1.67

Fernando De La Mora

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

Fernando De La Mora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw

62%

24 de Setiembre or Fernando De La Mora

75%

Draw or Fernando De La Mora

63%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+

17%

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals

75%

24 de Setiembre 2+ goals

41%

24 de Setiembre 3+ goals

17%

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals

76%

Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals

41%

Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)

49%

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more

37%

level

25%

Fernando De La Mora scores more

38%

Fernando De La Mora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff