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Fernández Vial vs D. Puerto Montt — Primera B 2018

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
10/31/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 28Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fernández Vial38%
×Draw28%
D. Puerto Montt34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.19
D. Puerto Montt
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 91 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.06
D. Puerto Montt
0.97

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.26
D. Puerto Montt
1.32

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
66%
Fernández Vial or D. Puerto Montt
72%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
62%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
16%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
70%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
33%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
12%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
67%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
30%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
53%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.06 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

D. Puerto Montt attack 0.97 + Fernández Vial defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
38%
level
28%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
34%

Fernández Vial at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Fernández Vial 2–3 D. Puerto Montt

D. Puerto Montt beat Fernández Vial 3-2 in Primera B on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.