D. Puerto Montt 0–1 Fernández Vial: Result & Stats

D. Puerto Montt

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fernández Vial

9/12/2022

Primera B · Round 28Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

D. Puerto Montt43%

×Draw28%

Fernández Vial29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. Puerto MonttExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

D. Puerto Montt

1.32

Fernández Vial

1.02

D. Puerto Montt creates 29% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 31 away

1.25

creates per match

1.10

0.95

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt

1.25

Fernández Vial

1.10

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt

0.95

Fernández Vial

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw

71%

D. Puerto Montt or Fernández Vial

72%

Draw or Fernández Vial

57%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+

20%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals

73%

D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals

38%

D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals

15%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

64%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

27%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)

60%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 95 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.25 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more

43%

level

28%

Fernández Vial scores more

29%

D. Puerto Montt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff