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Fernández Vial vs D. Melipilla — Segunda División 2020

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
7/16/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fernández Vial33%
×Draw25%
D. Melipilla42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
1.31
D. Melipilla
1.50

D. Melipilla creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
1.11
D. Melipilla
2.00

allows per match

Fernández Vial
1.00
D. Melipilla
1.50

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
58%
Fernández Vial or D. Melipilla
75%
Draw or D. Melipilla
67%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
14%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
73%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
38%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
14%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
78%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
44%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
44%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + D. Melipilla defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

D. Melipilla attack 2.00 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
33%
level
25%
D. Melipilla scores more
42%

D. Melipilla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernández Vial vs D. Melipilla

D. Melipilla beat Fernández Vial 2-1 in Segunda División on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.