D. Melipilla vs Fernández Vial — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 31+ matches
D. Melipilla44%
Fernández Vial28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
D. Melipilla creates 33% more chances
Season form · 55 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
D. Melipilla ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches
Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32
Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
D. Melipilla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Coquimbo Unido
Cobreloa
Cobresal
Deportes Valdivia
Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Morning
Union San Felipe
Rangers De Talca
BarnecheaD. Melipilla
D. Puerto Montt
D. La Serena
Magallanes
Deportes Copiapo
Nublense
San Marcos De AricaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
D. Melipilla host Fernández Vial on Sunday, 2 October 2022 at 23:30. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Fernández Vial
D. Melipilla and Fernández Vial drew 2-2 in Primera B on October 2, 2022.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.