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Fernández Vial vs Coquimbo Unido — Copa Chile 2019

Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
7/10/2021Copa ChileCopa Chile · Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fernández Vial34%
×Draw34%
Coquimbo Unido32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernández Vial
0.88
Coquimbo Unido
0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fernández Vial
0.80
Coquimbo Unido
1.10

allows per match

Fernández Vial
0.60
Coquimbo Unido
0.95

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw
68%
Fernández Vial or Coquimbo Unido
66%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
66%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+
12%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals
59%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
22%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
6%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
57%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
21%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
51%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 0.80 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.10 + Fernández Vial defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Fernández Vial scores more
34%
level
34%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
32%

Fernández Vial at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernández Vial vs Coquimbo Unido

Fernández Vial and Coquimbo Unido drew 0-0 in Copa Chile on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Concepción.