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Coquimbo Unido vs Fernández Vial — Primera B 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
8/14/2021Primera BPrimera B · Round 15Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Coquimbo Unido49%
×Draw27%
Fernández Vial24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.44
Fernández Vial
0.91

Coquimbo Unido creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.48
Fernández Vial
1.10

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.71
Fernández Vial
1.39

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
76%
Coquimbo Unido or Fernández Vial
73%
Draw or Fernández Vial
51%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
24%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
76%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
42%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
18%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
60%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
23%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
67%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.48 + Fernández Vial defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fernández Vial attack 1.10 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
49%
level
27%
Fernández Vial scores more
24%

Coquimbo Unido at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Fernández Vial

Coquimbo Unido beat Fernández Vial 1-0 in Primera B on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.