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Ferencvarosi TC vs Cukaricki — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cukaricki
Cukaricki
9/21/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC70%
×Draw17%
Cukaricki13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencvarosi TC
2.50
Cukaricki
1.00

Ferencvarosi TC creates 150% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Cukaricki
1.29

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC
0.71
Cukaricki
3.00

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par
Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Cukaricki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw
87%
Ferencvarosi TC or Cukaricki
83%
Draw or Cukaricki
30%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
47%
Cukaricki wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
92%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
71%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
45%
Cukaricki 1+ goals
63%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
26%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
84%
Cukaricki (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.00 + Cukaricki defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more
70%
level
17%
Cukaricki scores more
13%

Ferencvarosi TC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferencvarosi TC vs Cukaricki

Ferencvarosi TC beat Cukaricki 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.