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Cukaricki vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Cukaricki
Cukaricki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
11/30/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cukaricki21%
×Draw23%
Ferencvarosi TC56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cukaricki
1.00
Ferencvarosi TC
1.79

Ferencvarosi TC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cukaricki
1.29
Ferencvarosi TC
2.29

allows per match

Cukaricki
1.29
Ferencvarosi TC
0.71

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par
Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw
44%
Cukaricki or Ferencvarosi TC
77%
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
79%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+
7%
Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals
63%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
26%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
8%
Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
83%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
53%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)
27%
Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.29 + Cukaricki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cukaricki scores more
21%
level
23%
Ferencvarosi TC scores more
56%

Ferencvarosi TC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cukaricki vs Ferencvarosi TC

Ferencvarosi TC beat Cukaricki 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.