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Ferencváros II vs Dunaújváros-Pálhalma — NB III - Southwest 2019

Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
9/3/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 6FTC Utánpótlás Centrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ferencváros II75%
×Draw15%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencváros II
2.57
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.81

Ferencváros II creates 217% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ferencváros II
2.27
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.73

allows per match

Ferencváros II
0.89
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
2.87

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw
90%
Ferencváros II or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
85%
Draw or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
25%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+
53%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals
92%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
72%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
47%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
56%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
19%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
89%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 2.27 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.57

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.73 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ferencváros II scores more
75%
level
15%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
10%

Ferencváros II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Ferencváros II 4–0 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

Ferencváros II beat Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at FTC Utánpótlás Centrum in Budapest.