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Dunaújváros-Pálhalma vs Ferencváros II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
FT
0 – 0
Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
3/24/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21Dunaújvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma28%
×Draw25%
Ferencváros II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.17
Ferencváros II
1.58

Ferencváros II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
0.87
Ferencváros II
1.76

allows per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma
1.40
Ferencváros II
1.47

finishing

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par
Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma ↓

Ferencváros II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or draw
53%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or Ferencváros II
75%
Draw or Ferencváros II
72%

Winning margin

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+
11%
Ferencváros II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals
69%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals
33%
Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals
11%
Ferencváros II 1+ goals
79%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
47%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)
38%
Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.87 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more
28%
level
25%
Ferencváros II scores more
47%

Ferencváros II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 0–0 Ferencváros II

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma and Ferencváros II drew 0-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Dunaújvárosi Stadion in Dunaújváros.