Feralpisalo 0–1 Cittadella: Result & Stats

Feralpisalo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cittadella

L. Pandolfi 33'

12/2/2023

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Leonardo Garilli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Feralpisalo34%

×Draw26%

Cittadella39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeralpisaloExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.35

Feralpisalo

1.25

Cittadella

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 134 away

1.32

creates per match

0.92

1.79

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Feralpisalo

1.32

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Feralpisalo

1.79

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feralpisalo+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feralpisalo ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Feralpisalo or draw

61%

Feralpisalo or Cittadella

74%

Draw or Cittadella

66%

Winning margin

Feralpisalo wins by 2+

15%

Cittadella wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Feralpisalo 1+ goals

71%

Feralpisalo 2+ goals

36%

Feralpisalo 3+ goals

13%

Cittadella 1+ goals

74%

Cittadella 2+ goals

39%

Cittadella 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Feralpisalo (draw refunded)

47%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feralpisalo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feralpisalo attack 1.32 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Feralpisalo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Feralpisalo scores more

34%

level

26%

Cittadella scores more

39%

Cittadella at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

E. Kastrati

Cittadella · G

7.6

Match Events

6'

Luca Fiordilino

16'

Alessandro Salvi

33'

L. Pandolfi↳ F. Pittarello

46'

M. Tonetto← M. Camporese

64'

M. Felici← V. Parigini

64'

C. Kourfalidis← D. Di Molfetta

64'

E. Baldini← C. Cassano

64'

G. Carriero← F. Amatucci

70'

M. Sau← M. Compagnon

71'

A. Magrassi← F. Pittarello

75'

Federico Bergonzi

76'

Simone Branca

81'

E. Kornvig← A. Vita

81'

T. Maistrello← L. Pandolfi

86'

A. La Mantia← L. Fiordilino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FeralpisaloCittadella

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots9

6Corners2

11Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target5

4Off Target4

6Blocked0

6Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

397Total Passes406

275Accurate Passes271

69%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

Serie B: Feralpisalo 0–1 Cittadella

Cittadella beat Feralpisalo 1-0 in Serie B on December 2, 2023.

Goals: L. Pandolfi (33').

Feralpisalo controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Piacenza.

Feralpisalo vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Feralpisalo 0–1 Cittadella