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Cittadella vs Feralpisalo — Serie B 2018

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Feralpisalo
Feralpisalo
L. Carissoni 21'
A. Pietrelli 90+4'
4/27/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cittadella46%
×Draw26%
Feralpisalo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.45
Feralpisalo
1.05

Cittadella creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.27
Feralpisalo
1.00

allows per match

Cittadella
1.10
Feralpisalo
1.63

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Feralpisalo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Feralpisalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
73%
Cittadella or Feralpisalo
74%
Draw or Feralpisalo
54%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
23%
Feralpisalo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
77%
Cittadella 2+ goals
42%
Cittadella 3+ goals
18%
Feralpisalo 1+ goals
65%
Feralpisalo 2+ goals
28%
Feralpisalo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
63%
Feralpisalo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Feralpisalo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Feralpisalo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Feralpisalo attack 1.00 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cittadella scores more
46%
level
26%
Feralpisalo scores more
27%

Cittadella at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
E. KastratiCittadellaCittadella · G
7.7

Match Events

21'
L. Carissoni
23'
Lorenzo Carissoni
46'
A. La Mantia← K. Butić
56'
G. Letizia← A. Pilati
67'
E. Dubickas← M. Compagnon
72'
L. Pandolfi← A. Tessiore
80'
G. Carriero← S. Branca
81'
Giuseppe Carriero
84'
A. Pietrelli← M. Zennaro
88'
C. Cassano← L. Carissoni
89'
T. Maistrello← F. Pittarello
90+2'
Luca Fiordilino
90+4'
A. Pietrelli↳ G. Letizia

Possession

50%Cittadella

Shots

6Cittadella

Pass accuracy

50%Cittadella

Statistics

CittadellaFeralpisalo
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots9
3Corners3
19Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots9
1On Target5
4Off Target1
1Blocked3
4Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
356Total Passes378
245Accurate Passes265
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
19Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Feralpisalo

Cittadella and Feralpisalo drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 27, 2024.

Goals: L. Carissoni (21'), A. Pietrelli (90+4').

Cittadella controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.