Fénix 1–2 Argentino Quilmes: Result & Stats

Fénix

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Argentino Quilmes

7/22/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 6Estadio Ciudad Evita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Fénix35%

×Draw29%

Argentino Quilmes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FénixExpected goals in this matchArgentino Quilmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.09

Fénix

1.07

Argentino Quilmes

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 123 away

0.79

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Fénix

0.79

Argentino Quilmes

0.96

allows per match

Fénix

1.22

Argentino Quilmes

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

Argentino Quilmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fénix or draw

64%

Fénix or Argentino Quilmes

71%

Draw or Argentino Quilmes

65%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+

14%

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals

66%

Fénix 2+ goals

29%

Fénix 3+ goals

9%

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals

66%

Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals

30%

Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)

49%

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 125 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 0.79 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.07

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.96 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fénix scores more

35%

level

29%

Argentino Quilmes scores more

36%

Argentino Quilmes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Argentino Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff