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Argentino Quilmes vs Fénix — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fénix
Fénix
5/11/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 15Barranca Quilmena stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Argentino Quilmes45%
×Draw30%
Fénix25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Quilmes
1.22
Fénix
0.82

Argentino Quilmes creates 49% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 126 away

creates per match

Argentino Quilmes
1.22
Fénix
0.79

allows per match

Argentino Quilmes
0.85
Fénix
1.22

finishing

Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par
Fénix+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Quilmes ↓

Fénix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Argentino Quilmes or draw
75%
Argentino Quilmes or Fénix
70%
Draw or Fénix
55%

Winning margin

Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
20%
Fénix wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
70%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
34%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
12%
Fénix 1+ goals
56%
Fénix 2+ goals
20%
Fénix 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
65%
Fénix (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Quilmes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Fénix away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.22 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Fénix attack 0.79 + Argentino Quilmes defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Argentino Quilmes scores more
45%
level
30%
Fénix scores more
25%

Argentino Quilmes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Argentino Quilmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Argentino Quilmes vs Fénix

Argentino Quilmes beat Fénix 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Barranca Quilmena stadium in Quilmes.