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Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor — League #203 2026

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
Preview
17:00
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
9/20/2026League #203League #203 · Round 6Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
69%
Fenerbahçe
model favours
69%17%14%

Fenerbahçe have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Fenerbahçe69%
×Draw17%
Eyüpspor14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
2.48
Eyüpspor
1.01

Fenerbahçe creates 146% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
2.49
Eyüpspor
1.15

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
0.88
Eyüpspor
2.46

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.30scores more
Eyüpspor+0.48scores more

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Eyüpspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
86%
Fenerbahçe or Eyüpspor
83%
Draw or Eyüpspor
31%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
47%
Eyüpspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
92%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
70%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
44%
Eyüpspor 1+ goals
64%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
27%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
83%
Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.88 · 14 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.46 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.49 + Eyüpspor defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.48

Eyüpspor attack 1.15 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
69%
level
17%
Eyüpspor scores more
14%

Fenerbahçe at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 65% of Fenerbahçe’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Fenerbahçe sit 4, Eyüpspor 18 in the table
  • Fenerbahçe outscore their xG (2.7 vs 2.3 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fenerbahçe
Possession-dominant
Eyüpspor
Balanced
55%Possession44%
82%Pass accuracy79%
17.3ShotsBiggest gap9.6
2.26xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FenerbahçeEyüpspor

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 75%
3–33–02–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fenerbahçe
WWWDW
Eyüpspor
DLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fenerbahçe face Eyüpspor (League #203)

League #203 returns with Fenerbahçe hosting Eyüpspor. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fenerbahçe host Eyüpspor at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.