Fenerbahçe 2–1 Eyüpspor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eyüpspor

E. Džeko 84'

Y. En-Nesyri 32'

U. Meraş 90+4'

5/18/2025

League #203 · Round 36Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fenerbahçe72%

×Draw16%

Eyüpspor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchEyüpspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.00

Fenerbahçe

2.63

Eyüpspor

1.00

Fenerbahçe creates 163% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.37

creates per match

1.13

0.88

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.37

Eyüpspor

1.13

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.88

Eyüpspor

2.88

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.06on par

Eyüpspor+0.47scores more

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Eyüpspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

88%

Fenerbahçe or Eyüpspor

84%

Draw or Eyüpspor

28%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

50%

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

93%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

73%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

48%

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

63%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

26%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

85%

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.88 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.37 + Eyüpspor defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.63

Eyüpspor attack 1.13 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

72%

level

16%

Eyüpspor scores more

12%

Fenerbahçe at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Tadić

Fenerbahçe · F

9.2

Match Events

32'

Y. En-Nesyri↳ D. Tadić

41'

Emre Mor

53'

Fred

63'

E. Akbaba← E. Mor

63'

Rúben Vezo← R. Yalçın

70'

B. Osayi-Samuel← O. Aydın

70'

E. Džeko← Y. En-Nesyri

73'

C. Erkin← M. Thiam

80'

L. Mercan← S. Szymański

84'

88'

88'

88'

90+7'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeEyüpspor

Overview

39%Possession61%

21Total Shots10

3.45Expected Goals (xG)1.68

7Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots10

7On Target3

9Off Target4

5Blocked3

17Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

359Total Passes571

286Accurate Passes512

80%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

1.02Goals Prevented1.02

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2