Eyüpspor 1–1 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Eyüpspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fenerbahçe

A. Kutucu 26'

Y. En-Nesyri 45+4'

12/20/2024

League #203 · Round 17Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Eyüpspor20%

×Draw22%

Fenerbahçe58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EyüpsporExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.97

Eyüpspor

1.08

Fenerbahçe

1.97

Fenerbahçe creates 82% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.17

creates per match

2.06

1.88

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Eyüpspor

1.17

Fenerbahçe

2.06

allows per match

Eyüpspor

1.88

Fenerbahçe

0.99

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Eyüpspor-0.34scores less

Fenerbahçe+0.07on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eyüpspor ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Eyüpspor or draw

42%

Eyüpspor or Fenerbahçe

78%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

80%

Winning margin

Eyüpspor wins by 2+

7%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Eyüpspor 1+ goals

66%

Eyüpspor 2+ goals

29%

Eyüpspor 3+ goals

10%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

86%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

58%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Eyüpspor (draw refunded)

26%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eyüpspor at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.88 · 6 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eyüpspor attack 1.17 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Fenerbahçe attack 2.06 + Eyüpspor defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eyüpspor scores more

20%

level

22%

Fenerbahçe scores more

58%

Fenerbahçe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Özer

Eyüpspor · G

8.6

Match Events

13'

26'

44'

45+5'

45+4'

45+4'

Y. En-Nesyri↳ F. Kostić

53'

Çağlar Söyüncü

69'

U. Meraş← C. Erkin

69'

P. Ampem← H. Akbunar

69'

E. Džeko← S. Szymański

69'

A. Saint-Maximin← İ. Kahveci

72'

Allan Saint-Maximin

73'

Dorukhan Toköz

79'

E. Mor← D. Toköz

79'

T. Bingöl← R. Yalçın

82'

C. Ünder← Fred

82'

M. Müldür← B. Osayi-Samuel

82'

84'

88'

90+8'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EyüpsporFenerbahçe

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots14

1.40Expected Goals (xG)1.36

3Corners9

12Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target9

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

327Total Passes434

233Accurate Passes334

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

12Fouls10

6Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1