Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK — League #203 2026

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
D. Pelkas 14'
E. Valencia 12'
J. Sosa 6' (pen)
Ö. Sert 81'
5/3/2021League #203League #203 · Round 39Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fenerbahçe73%
×Draw17%
Erzurumspor FK10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
2.35
Erzurumspor FK
0.73

Fenerbahçe creates 222% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
2.71
Erzurumspor FK
0.33

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
1.14
Erzurumspor FK
2.00

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
90%
Fenerbahçe or Erzurumspor FK
83%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
27%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
50%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
90%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
68%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
41%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
52%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
17%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
88%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.71 + Erzurumspor FK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Erzurumspor FK attack 0.33 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
73%
level
17%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
10%

Fenerbahçe at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
İ. KahveciFenerbahçeFenerbahçe · M
8.3

Match Events

4'
Mert Hakan YandaşGoal cancelled
5'
Gökhan Kardeş
6'
J. SosaPenalty
12'
E. Valencia↳ İ. Kahveci
14'
D. Pelkas↳ E. Valencia
46'
Ö. Sert← J. Omolo
46'
E. Rashani← A. Novikovas
49'
Elbasan Rashani
61'
B. Butko← C. Alkılıç
62'
F. Novák← C. Erkin
70'
M. Samatta← M. Yandaş
71'
B. Osayi-Samuel← M. Özil
79'
Mehmet Murat Uçar
81'
Ö. Sert↳ G. Obertan
88'
Luiz Gustavo← D. Pelkas

Possession

60%Fenerbahçe

Shots

28Fenerbahçe

Pass accuracy

51%Fenerbahçe

Statistics

FenerbahçeErzurumspor
Overview
60%Possession40%
28Total Shots11
10Corners5
17Fouls12
Shots
28Total Shots11
10On Target2
10Off Target6
8Blocked3
22Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
654Total Passes412
588Accurate Passes362
90%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
17Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

League #203: Fenerbahçe 3–1 Erzurumspor FK

Fenerbahçe beat Erzurumspor FK 3-1 in League #203 on May 3, 2021.

Goals: J. Sosa (6' pen), E. Valencia (12'), D. Pelkas (14'), Ö. Sert (81').

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (60%) and registered 28 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.