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Erzurumspor FK vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
V. Moses 59' (pen)
5/20/2019League #203League #203 · Round 33Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Erzurumspor FK11%
×Draw20%
Fenerbahçe69%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
0.60
Fenerbahçe
1.93

Fenerbahçe creates 222% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.50
Fenerbahçe
2.10

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.75
Fenerbahçe
0.70

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
31%
Erzurumspor FK or Fenerbahçe
80%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
89%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
3%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
45%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
12%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
2%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
85%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
57%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
13%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 0.50 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.60

Fenerbahçe attack 2.10 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
11%
level
20%
Fenerbahçe scores more
69%

Fenerbahçe at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
H. TekinFenerbahçeFenerbahçe · G
7.7

Match Events

11'
İbrahim Akdağ
18'
Mathieu Valbuena
25'
V. Moses← M. Valbuena
43'
Hakan Arslan
43'
Tolgay Arslan
58'
Ibrahim Šehić
59'
V. MosesPenalty
65'
S. Tshabalala← İ. Akdağ
65'
K. Opseth← S. Eduok
69'
Martin Škrtel
71'
Serdar Aziz
71'
A. Ayew← Soldado
80'
M. Ekici← M. Zajc
87'
Harun Tekin
88'
Tolga Ünlü

Possession

39%Erzurumspor

Shots

14Erzurumspor

Pass accuracy

48%Erzurumspor

Statistics

ErzurumsporFenerbahçe
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots10
8Corners2
8Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots10
3On Target3
7Off Target6
4Blocked1
4Inside Box9
10Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
313Total Passes521
242Accurate Passes427
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
4Yellow Cards5
2Offsides2

League #203: Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Erzurumspor FK 1-0 in League #203 on May 20, 2019.

Goals: V. Moses (59' pen).

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.