Fenerbahçe 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Kyiv

A. Szalai 88'

O. Karavaev 114'

V. Buyalskyi 57'

7/27/2022

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fenerbahçe63%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Kyiv16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.89

Fenerbahçe

2.00

Dynamo Kyiv

0.89

Fenerbahçe creates 125% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

0.77

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.00

Dynamo Kyiv

0.77

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

1.00

Dynamo Kyiv

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

84%

Fenerbahçe or Dynamo Kyiv

79%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

37%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

39%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

86%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

59%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

32%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

59%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

22%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

80%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.77 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

63%

level

21%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

16%

Fenerbahçe at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

29'

33'

37'

37'

45+3'

45+4'

46'

53'

53'

57'

V. Buyalskyi↳ T. Kędziora

58'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

60'

Mykola Shaparenko

62'

Emre Mor

63'

Miguel Crespo← J. King

67'

D. Harmash← V. Buyalskyi

67'

V. Shepelev← A. Besedin

68'

Denys Popov

77'

Bruma← E. Mor

77'

S. Dursun← E. Valencia

85'

Lincoln← M. Tisserand

88'

A. Szalai↳ Lincoln

90'

O. Karavaev← T. Kędziora

95'

F. Novák← Willian Arão

98'

Attila Szalai

105'

K. Vivcharenko← V. Dubinchak

105'

O. Andrievskyi← S. Sydorchuk

111'

Denys Garmash

114'

O. Karavaev↳ K. Vivcharenko

Shots

Statistics

FenerbahçeDynamo

Overview

11Total Shots9

7Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target4

6Off Target5

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

5Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards0

UEFA Champions League: Fenerbahçe 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv

Fenerbahçe and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on July 27, 2022.

Goals: V. Buyalskyi (57'), A. Szalai (88'), O. Karavaev (114').

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.

Fenerbahçe vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Champions League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

UEFA Champions League: Fenerbahçe 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv