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Dynamo Kyiv vs Fenerbahçe — UEFA Champions League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
7/20/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv44%
×Draw34%
Fenerbahçe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.00
Fenerbahçe
0.59

Dynamo Kyiv creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.00
Fenerbahçe
0.25

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.94
Fenerbahçe
1.00

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
79%
Dynamo Kyiv or Fenerbahçe
66%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
56%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
17%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
63%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
26%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
8%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
45%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
12%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
68%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.00 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fenerbahçe attack 0.25 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
44%
level
34%
Fenerbahçe scores more
21%

Dynamo Kyiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Fenerbahçe

Dynamo Kyiv and Fenerbahçe drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.