Fenerbahçe 2–1 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ankaragücü

C. Ünder 32', 20'

T. Ciğerci 13' (pen)

1/28/2024

League #203 · Round 23Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fenerbahçe65%

×Draw19%

Ankaragücü16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.07

Fenerbahçe

2.33

Ankaragücü

1.07

Fenerbahçe creates 118% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

2.55

creates per match

1.00

1.15

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.55

Ankaragücü

1.00

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

1.15

Ankaragücü

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

84%

Fenerbahçe or Ankaragücü

81%

Draw or Ankaragücü

35%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

42%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

90%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

67%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

41%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

66%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

29%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

80%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.55 + Ankaragücü defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

65%

level

19%

Ankaragücü scores more

16%

Fenerbahçe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Ünder

Fenerbahçe · M

8.9

Match Events

13'

T. CiğerciPenalty

20'

C. Ünder↳ M. Müldür

32'

C. Ünder

61'

T. Chatzigiovanis← O. Moruțan

71'

M. Batshuayi← E. Džeko

73'

R. Bajić← A. Sowe

74'

M. Çetin← M. Hanousek

81'

Miguel Crespo← İ. Yüksek

81'

E. Mor← C. Ünder

86'

A. Çankaya← R. Cephas

87'

F. Macheda← A. Güneren

90+3'

M. Yandaş← S. Szymański

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeAnkaragücü

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots4

1.88Expected Goals (xG)0.89

9Corners0

17Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots4

10On Target2

8Off Target0

4Blocked2

13Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

558Total Passes343

473Accurate Passes253

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Offsides0