Fenerbahçe 2–1 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ankaragücü

Miguel Crespo 90+6'

E. Valencia 87' (pen)

A. Sowe 81'

4/15/2023

League #203 · Round 29Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fenerbahçe61%

×Draw21%

Ankaragücü18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.00

Fenerbahçe

2.03

Ankaragücü

1.00

Fenerbahçe creates 103% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.18

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.18

Ankaragücü

1.00

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

1.00

Ankaragücü

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

82%

Fenerbahçe or Ankaragücü

79%

Draw or Ankaragücü

39%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

37%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

87%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

60%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

33%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

63%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

26%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

77%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.18 + Ankaragücü defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.03

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

61%

level

21%

Ankaragücü scores more

18%

Fenerbahçe at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Güler

Fenerbahçe · M

7.9

Match Events

45+1'

İsmail Yüksek

46'

João Pedro← S. Dursun

46'

A. Đokanović← G. Zahid

64'

Willian Arão← İ. Yüksek

64'

E. Mor← D. Rossi

64'

Milson← E. Kılınç

72'

Lamine Diack

74'

Andrej Đokanović

78'

Miguel Crespo← M. Zajc

78'

81'

84'

85'

86'

87'

87'

E. ValenciaPenalty

90+10'

Bright Osayi-Samuel

90+11'

Milson

90+8'

Nihad Mujakić

90+9'

B. Moussiti-Oko← T. Antalyalı

90+6'

Miguel Crespo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeAnkaragücü

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots10

8Corners7

14Fouls26

Shots

19Total Shots10

9On Target4

8Off Target3

2Blocked3

13Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

579Total Passes247

486Accurate Passes159

84%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls26

2Yellow Cards7

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü

Fenerbahçe beat Ankaragücü 2-1 in League #203 on April 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Sowe (81'), E. Valencia (87' pen), Miguel Crespo (90+6').

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.

Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü