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Felgueiras 1932 vs FC Porto B — Segunda Liga 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Porto B
FC Porto B
Lucas Duarte 90', 44'
12/21/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 15Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Felgueiras 193243%
×Draw28%
FC Porto B30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.32
FC Porto B
1.06

Felgueiras 1932 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 128 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
1.12
FC Porto B
1.15

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.97
FC Porto B
1.52

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

FC Porto B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
70%
Felgueiras 1932 or FC Porto B
72%
Draw or FC Porto B
57%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
20%
FC Porto B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
73%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
38%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
15%
FC Porto B 1+ goals
65%
FC Porto B 2+ goals
29%
FC Porto B 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
59%
FC Porto B (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.12 + FC Porto B defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Porto B attack 1.15 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
43%
level
28%
FC Porto B scores more
30%

Felgueiras 1932 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Lucas DuarteFelgueiras 1932Felgueiras 1932 · F
9.0

Match Events

22'
Dario
24'
Kauê
31'
Afonso Silva
44'
Lucas Duarte↳ Feliz
46'
T. Andrade← Y. Karamoh
62'
Michel Costa← M. Rivas
65'
L. Vonic← J. Teixeira
69'
J. Pinto← Feliz
77'
G. Sousa← A. Miranda
82'
Y. Pereira← Henrique Kaio
82'
A. Oliveira← Kaue Rodrigues
90+7'
Domingos Andrade
90+11'
Domingos Andrade
90+2'
Dudu Cruz← Dario
90+2'
F. Cruz← Eiro
90+2'
Berna← H. Martins
90'
Lucas Duarte↳ P. Rosas

Possession

61%Felgueiras

Shots

20Felgueiras

Pass accuracy

54%Felgueiras

Statistics

FelgueirasFC
Overview
61%Possession39%
20Total Shots15
11Corners3
10Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots15
6On Target5
7Off Target7
7Blocked3
14Inside Box12
6Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
356Total Passes239
278Accurate Passes157
78%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Segunda Liga: Felgueiras 1932 2–0 FC Porto B

Felgueiras 1932 beat FC Porto B 2-0 in Segunda Liga on December 21, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Duarte (44', 90').

Felgueiras 1932 controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.