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FC Porto B vs Felgueiras 1932 — Segunda Liga 2018

FC Porto B
FC Porto B
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
Carlos Eduardo 84'
Léo Teixeira 65'
9/29/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 6Estádio Luís Filipe Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FC Porto B40%
×Draw27%
Felgueiras 193233%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto B
1.34
Felgueiras 1932
1.19

FC Porto B creates 13% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Porto B
1.42
Felgueiras 1932
1.15

allows per match

FC Porto B
1.24
Felgueiras 1932
1.26

finishing

FC Porto B+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto B ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Porto B or draw
67%
FC Porto B or Felgueiras 1932
73%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
60%

Winning margin

FC Porto B wins by 2+
18%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Porto B 1+ goals
74%
FC Porto B 2+ goals
39%
FC Porto B 3+ goals
15%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
70%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
33%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Porto B (draw refunded)
55%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto B at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 125 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto B attack 1.42 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + FC Porto B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Porto B scores more
40%
level
27%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
33%

FC Porto B at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Porto B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Rui Rampa
38'
Tiago Andrade
43'
Abraham Marcus
45+2'
Gabi Pereira
46'
Pedro Rosas← Rui Rampa
46'
Landinho← Gabi Pereira
57'
Ángel Alarcón← Tiago Andrade
57'
Anhá Candé← Rui Monteiro
65'
Léo Teixeira
68'
Rodrigo Fernandes← Castro
68'
Carlos Eduardo← Théo Fonseca
72'
Feliz Vaz← Léo Teixeira
80'
Jorge Meireles← Luís Gomes
80'
Gil Martins← Domingos Andrade
82'
Edwin Banguera
84'
Carlos Eduardo
86'
David Veiga← Vasco Moreira

Statistics

FCFelgueiras
Discipline
1Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: FC Porto B 0–2 Felgueiras 1932

Felgueiras 1932 beat FC Porto B 2-0 in Segunda Liga on September 29, 2024.

Goals: Léo Teixeira (65'), Carlos Eduardo (84').

The match was played at Estádio Luís Filipe Menezes in Vila Nova de Gaia.