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Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves — Segunda Liga 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chaves
Chaves
9/14/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Felgueiras 193236%
×Draw29%
Chaves35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.14
Chaves
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Chaves
1.26

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.97
Chaves
1.15

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
65%
Felgueiras 1932 or Chaves
71%
Draw or Chaves
64%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
15%
Chaves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
68%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
32%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
11%
Chaves 1+ goals
67%
Chaves 2+ goals
30%
Chaves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
51%
Chaves (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.12 + Chaves defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Chaves attack 1.26 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
36%
level
29%
Chaves scores more
35%

Felgueiras 1932 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Felgueiras 1932 1–2 Chaves

Chaves beat Felgueiras 1932 2-1 in Segunda Liga on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.